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CNH - Uptrend↗
Support / Resistance
vs HKD 1.1452 / 1.1553
vs USD 6.78 / 6.84
SAFE data released on Monday showed China’s April foreign-exchange settlement surplus widened to US$40.1bn, extending a 12-month run of surpluses. Combined with strong exports and improving US–China trade relations, this backdrop is expected to support an orderly appreciation of the renminbi
EUR - Sideways➡
Support / Resistance
vs HKD 9.0471 / 9.1646
vs USD 1.16 / 1.17
The Middle East conflict has persisted for over two months with no clear end in sight. The Strait of Hormuz blockade is rapidly depleting global commercial crude inventories, keeping oil prices elevated. Oil-related trading demand is supporting US dollar strength, which continues to cap the euro
JPY - Uptrend↗
Support / Resistance
vs HKD 4.8956 / 4.9892
vs USD 157.00 / 160.00
On Monday, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan is ready to respond to excessive foreign-exchange volatility. She noted reserves remain highly liquid, implying intervention may not require selling US Treasuries. Any potential action is expected to underpin the yen and help stabilise market conditions
GBP - Sideways➡
Support / Resistance
vs HKD 10.3396 / 10.4962
vs USD 1.32 / 1.34
The UK reported on Tuesday that March unemployment rose to 5%, pointing to a softer labour market. Political uncertainty is also raising concerns that fiscal policy may shift towards austerity, while a leadership contest could run for months, leaving sterling under sustained pressure
AUD - Sideways➡
Support / Resistance
vs HKD 5.4831 / 5.6398
vs USD 0.70 / 0.72
RBA minutes released on Tuesday showed eight of nine members saw the ongoing Middle East conflict as increasing inflation risks, supporting a rise in the cash rate to 4.35%. With policy already tightening and growth likely to slow, the Australian dollar may face near-term constraints
NZD - Sideways➡
Support / Resistance
vs HKD 4.4648 / 4.6215
vs USD 0.57 / 0.59
Limited near-term prospects for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen are keeping oil prices elevated. Rising risk aversion is weighing on commodity-linked currencies. Markets largely expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to leave policy unchanged at next Wednesday’s meeting, which may cap the New Zealand dollar
CAD - Sideways➡
Support / Resistance
vs HKD 5.6761 / 5.7385
vs USD 1.37 / 1.38
Limited progress in US–Iran negotiations is sustaining concerns over disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping oil prices elevated and offering some support to the Canadian dollar. However, ongoing USMCA uncertainty and Canada’s domestic economic headwinds are expected to continue weighing on the currency
CHF - Uptrend↗
Support / Resistance
vs HKD 9.8528 / 10.1071
vs USD 0.78 / 0.80
A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could expose Switzerland to a sustained energy price shock. Markets are pricing a more hawkish Swiss National Bank, with scope for rate increases. Interest-rate futures indicate over an 80% chance of a hike by December, supporting CHF strength
XAU - Uptrend↗
Support / Resistance
vs HKD(Oz) 34,465 / 37,598
vs USD(Oz) 4,400 / 4,800
The Middle East stalemate is fuelling inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations of higher interest rates, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Elevated oil prices are also underpinning the US dollar via trading flows, which is likely to cap gold’s upside
Uptrend ↗ Sideways → Downtrend ↘
*Pertaining to historical technical trend analysis only and do not reflect any forecasts or any forward looking views
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