Investment Insights

CIO Viewpoints

Is the recent US tech pullback a buying opportunity?

Daily Insights

Focus of the Day

  • France 10-year yield breaks above 5%

Other Commentaries

  • UK inflation re-accelerates, pressuring bond markets; APEC finance ministers deliver pragmatic outcomes, strengthen regional cooperation; South Korea equities swing, heavyweight sectors keep strong growth

Market Analysis

FX Markets Analysis

Latest Technical Highlights

CAD - Uptrend↗

Support / Resistance

vs HKD 5.5263 / 5.6865

vs USD 1.38 / 1.42

The Governor of the Bank of Canada said that, given the continued high prices of crude oil and petroleum products, the Bank may significantly raise its quarterly inflation forecast at its policy meeting on the 28th of this month. The remarks have heightened expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Canada this month, supporting the Canadian dollar.

 

Legends

Uptrend ↗  Sideways →  Downtrend ↘

*Pertaining to historical technical trend analysis only and do not reflect any forecasts or any forward looking views

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

Stock Markets View

  • US inflation topped expectations, though safe-haven demand pushed Treasury yields lower. Concerns over AI financing and investment returns weighed on technology stocks, driving rotation into traditional sectors including energy and healthcare.
  • European corporate earnings remain resilient, but the attack on Saudi energy facilities may keep regional energy prices elevated. The increasing risk of further ECB tightening could cap equity-market performance.
  • Asia-Pacific equities corrected amid deleveraging in AI-linked trades and elevated interest rates. Near-term fund flows may remain under pressure, favouring diversification across regional markets and sectors to mitigate volatility.
  • Emerging-market earnings and economic fundamentals remain broadly resilient. The US Dollar Index is firm but may have limited upside, while country-specific monetary policy and election developments could provide catalysts.
  • Mainland China’s growth accelerated last quarter, with September industrial output and retail sales improving from August. Attention turns to potential technology and consumption policy signals from the Fifth Plenum later this month.
Legends

Positive - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform well relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Neutral - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Cautious - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may not perform well or in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

Bond Markets View

  • US inflation pressures persist. September CPI rose 0.6% month on month and 3.7% year on year, while PPI increased 1.3% and 6.3%, respectively, with both readings above expectations.
  • The recent sell-off in AI-related equities drove a rotation into more defensive fixed-income assets.
  • The Bank of Korea maintained a hawkish stance, indicating that monetary policy will remain restrictive in the near term as inflation pressures stay elevated.
  • The technology-stock correction spread to credit markets, driving a marked widening in US high-yield spreads. Near-term volatility may persist, warranting scrutiny of potential credit-risk contagion.
  • Technology-stock weakness and rising geopolitical risks widened Asian high-yield spreads, although elevated coupons helped cushion losses. Refinancing pressure on lower-rated issuers may increase.
  • Emerging-market bonds extended gains, but Indonesian assets came under pressure amid the risk of a potential equity-market downgrade, sending stocks, bonds and the currency lower. The episode may heighten near-term volatility, putting fund flows in focus.
Legends

Positive - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform well relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Neutral - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Cautious - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may not perform well or in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

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