Investment Insights

CIO Viewpoints

How to position the investment portfolio after a quick V-shape rebound?

Daily Insights

Focus of the Day
  • Nasdaq 100’s 14-day RSI exceeded 70, technically overbought

Other Commentaries

  • Mainland China’s new home prices were flat MoM in April; UK-EU reset post-Brexit ties; Fed officials signaled no rate cuts before September

Market Analysis

FX Markets Analysis

Latest Technical Highlights

JPY - Uptrend ↗

Support / Resistance

vs HKD 5.2841 / 5.5073

vs USD 142.00 / 148.00

BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if the economy rebounds from the tariffs. Hawkish comments are expected to support the yen. Technically, USD/JPY support is at 142

Legends

Uptrend ↗  Sideways →  Downtrend ↘

Pertaining to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forecasts.

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

Stock Markets View

Moderate inflation data and improved market sentiment have driven gains, with the technology sector leading major indices higher. Markets remain focused on trade negotiations with other countries and the Fed's policy trajectory

  • European equities rebounded further, supported by progress in Sino-US trade talks. Investors are monitoring Eurozone inflation data and developments in US-EU trade negotiations
  • Despite a contraction in Japan's Q1 GDP, optimism in investment sentiment continues to drive Asian markets higher. Markets expect the Bank of Indonesia to cut rates again to address economic uncertainty
  • Recent recovery in emerging Latin American currencies has been offset by weak domestic demand in some emerging markets and lingering US tariff threats, which may weigh on local economies
  • The mutual tariff reductions between China and the US have boosted Hong Kong equities, although profit-taking followed robust earnings from major tech firms. Mainland economic and earnings improvements will continue to support Hang Seng Index performance
Legends

Positive - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform well relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Neutral - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Cautious - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may not perform well or in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

Bond Markets View

  • Following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign rating, US Treasury yields continued to rebound. However, slowing US inflation and weak retail sales data reinforced expectations for Fed rate cuts
  • Reports of the US and EU initiating tariff negotiations improved market sentiment, supporting a continued narrowing of credit spreads for US investment-grade corporate bonds
  • India's April inflation rate fell below the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% target. Persistent easing in inflation strengthened market expectations of further rate cuts by the Indian central bank
  • The US high-yield primary market remains active, with increased demand for high-yield bonds. However, yields have retreated significantly from last month’s highs
  • Credit spreads in Asian high-yield bonds continued to tighten. Rating agency S&P noted that China's property market is stabilizing, while investors remain focused on residential sales across the sector
  • Emerging market bonds remained stable. The Bank of Mexico cut rates to a near three-year low, but rising inflation pressures may complicate future monetary policy adjustments to address economic weakness
Legends

Positive - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform well relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Neutral - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Cautious - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may not perform well or in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

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