Investment Insights

Latest Market Focus

Gold prices have technically moved into oversold territory (Chinese only)

CIO Viewpoints

Surging oil prices kept market stay risk averse

Daily Insights

Focus of the Day

  • Hang Seng Index breaks below its 250-day moving average

Other Commentaries

  • Trump announces a pause in potential military action against Iran; Japanese firms agree to wage hikes of over 5% for a third consecutive year; China rolls out 109 major projects under the 15th Five-Year

Hang Seng Index breaks below its 250-day moving average

Market Analysis

FX Markets Analysis

Latest Technical Highlights

XAU - Uptrend↗

Support / Resistance

vs HKD(Oz) 32,903 / 36,036

vs USD(Oz) 4,200 / 4,600

Gold prices were highly volatile on Monday amid abrupt developments in the Middle East, briefly dipping below US$4,100 per ounce before recovering to around US$4,300 to US$4,400 as the US dollar and oil prices eased following Trump’s decision to delay strikes on Iranian energy facilities

 

Legends

Uptrend ↗  Sideways →  Downtrend ↘

*Pertaining to historical technical trend analysis only and do not reflect any forecasts or any forward looking views

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

Stock Markets View

  • Elevated Middle East tensions have reinforced inflation expectations, weighing on valuations, while a hawkish Fed tilt has dampened risk appetite. Flows have rotated into defensive sectors, with market focus now on March PMI and other key economic data
  • Persistently high energy prices leave Europe facing resurgent inflation and slowing growth. The ECB may be compelled to raise interest rates, posing headwinds to equity valuations
  • Following a sharp sell-off, Asian equities staged a rebound, though heightened risk aversion points to near-term volatility. Domestically driven markets within the region are relatively more stable
  • Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and surging oil prices have exacerbated inflation concerns. Rising risk aversion could weigh on emerging market equities, while volatility in precious metals and commodities adds to the uncertainty
  • Diminishing expectations of Fed rate cuts, coupled with post-earnings weakness in major tech names, have pressured Hong Kong stocks. High-dividend names have held up relatively better. Key support for the Hang Seng Index stands at 24,000
Legends

Positive - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform well relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Neutral - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Cautious - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may not perform well or in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

Bond Markets View

  • Major central banks—including the Fed, BoE, and ECB—have flagged inflation risks, driving yields higher. The 10-year US Treasury yield has moved above 4.4%
  • Higher US Treasury yields have extended the sell-off in investment grade credit, though the pace of losses moderated week-over-week; spreads tightened by nearly 5bp
  • Bank Indonesia held rates at 4.75% in March to navigate Middle East-related uncertainties and maintain currency and inflation stability
  • Geopolitical risks have pushed oil prices higher and added to inflation uncertainty, keeping high yield risk premiums volatile. Investor preference favors higher-rated credit, while lower-rated segments face heightened volatility
  • With risk sentiment turning cautious, Asian USD-denominated high yield has come under pressure. China’s NBS data showed January–February property sales (by area and value) continued to contract, suggesting a still gradual demand recovery
  • Emerging market spreads have widened by around 10bp and are likely to remain sensitive to risk events in the near term. That said, Brazil’s initiation of rate cuts marks a shift toward policy easing
Legends

Positive - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform well relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Neutral - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Cautious - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may not perform well or in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

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