Investment Insights

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Navigating Opportunities in Emerging Market Debt (Chinese only)

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Why is global infrastructure in the spotlight this year?

Daily Insights

Focus of the Day

  • Trump signs pipeline permits; CAD seen stabilizing

Other Commentaries

  • China’s Q1 GDP beats expectations as demand recover; Eurozone March inflation revised up to 2.6%; Multiple countries hold summit on safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz

Market Analysis

FX Markets Analysis

Latest Technical Highlights

AUD - Uptrend↗

Support / Resistance

vs HKD 5.3981 / 5.6328

vs USD 0.69 / 0.72

Australia’s March labour market report showed a solid increase in full-time employment offset by a fall in part-time roles, leaving total employment up 18,000 and the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3%. While growth has moderated, conditions remain firm, and rising expectations of an RBA rate rise in May are likely to support the Australian dollar

 

Legends

Uptrend ↗  Sideways →  Downtrend ↘

*Pertaining to historical technical trend analysis only and do not reflect any forecasts or any forward looking views

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

Stock Markets View

  • US–Iran ceasefire news briefly lowered oil prices, supporting a rebound in US equities. March core CPI was slightly below expectations, but sustained high oil prices could still lift core inflation
  • Lower oil prices would support European equities. However, the EU has highlighted stagflation risks and is likely to cut this year’s growth forecast, which may limit upside amid weak fundamentals
  • Asian equities rebounded on the temporary US–Iran ceasefire. Regional growth remains resilient, and increased fiscal spending should support longer-term economic and market development
  • US–Iran talks have yet to deliver concrete outcomes; negotiations and commodity trends remain key watchpoints. If Middle East tensions ease and risk aversion falls, flows may rotate back into emerging markets
  • China’s PPI rose 0.5% year-on-year, signalling a return to mild inflation that could support corporate earnings. Focus now shifts to China’s Q1 GDP and March activity data
Legends

Positive - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform well relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Neutral - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Cautious - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may not perform well or in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

Bond Markets View

  • US–Iran talks briefly pushed yields lower, but rising US inflation has supported US Treasury yields at current lows. If the US–Iran negotiations fail, yields may repeatedly move higher
  • US Treasury yields fell week-on-week in the second week of April, helping investment-grade credit reverse earlier losses. The segment rose 0.46% over the week, while spreads tightened by more than 2 bps week-on-week
  • The Bank of Korea kept rates unchanged but warned that a US–Iran conflict could push inflation above expectations. However, if the shock proves temporary, the central bank would not adjust policy rates
  • If US–Iran talks fail to make progress, this could weigh on the US high-yield segment, which had briefly strengthened after negotiations began
  • Travel and consumption during the Qingming holiday continued to recover, supporting sentiment in China high-yield credit. However, the improvement remains modest and credit differentiation is unchanged. This segment is expected to stay range-bound and volatile
  • Uncertainty in the Middle East could deter capital from returning to emerging markets, weighing on emerging market debt performance
Legends

Positive - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform well relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Neutral - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Cautious - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may not perform well or in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

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