Investment Insights

CIO Viewpoints

 Why China A-shares can offer both growth and defense amid market volatility?

Daily Insights

Focus of the Day

  • Korea stocks slide, break below 20-Day moving average

Other Commentaries

  • US June PMIs beat across the board; Europe May auto sales rise 3.6% YoY; China June key-city home sales divergence persists

Market Analysis

FX Markets Analysis

Latest Technical Highlights

GBP - Sideways➡

Support / Resistance

vs HKD 10.1920 / 10.5840

vs USD 1.30 / 1.35

A UK survey released on Tuesday (23rd) showed June business activity contracted at the fastest rate since April 2025, as services-sector weakness weighed on the economy. Markets remain cautious ahead of the new Prime Minister and Chancellor appointments and policy direction, potentially capping pound

 

Legends

Uptrend ↗  Sideways →  Downtrend ↘

*Pertaining to historical technical trend analysis only and do not reflect any forecasts or any forward looking views

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

Stock Markets View

  • The Fed has fueled expectations of rate hikes, but a pullback in oil prices has eased some inflation concerns. AI demand remains strong; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index strengthened, helping the Nasdaq outperform the market
  • Easing geopolitical risks should support European equities in the near term. UK inflation has cooled slightly, but the Bank of England is still likely to raise rates in the second half of the year, which may limit UK equity performance
  • Asian equities have strengthened, supported by the AI theme and falling oil prices. However, the yen has weakened further against the US dollar. Markets are watching whether authorities will intervene in FX markets again, which could make Japanese equities more volatile
  • US–Iran negotiations remain in a prolonged stalemate. The Fed’s stance appears more hawkish and the US dollar index has rebounded, which may weigh on investor risk appetite and global capital allocation to emerging markets

     

 

  • Hang Seng Index has fallen to a near one-year low. Expectations of US rate hikes this year have pushed up the US dollar and US Treasury yields. However, valuations for the Hang Seng Index look low, and southbound Stock Connect buying on dips may help support Hong Kong equities
Legends

Positive - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform well relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Neutral - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Cautious - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may not perform well or in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

Bond Markets View

  • More Fed officials are leaning towards a rate hike before year-end. However, longer-dated yields have remained relatively stable, suggesting long-term inflation expectations haven’t shifted much, which is supportive of steadier sovereign bond performance
  • As of 19 June, US long-term Treasury yields softened, supporting the continued rebound in US investment-grade corporate bonds, which rose 0.15% week-on-week. However, credit spreads widened slightly by 1 basis point
  • Bank Indonesia raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to stabilize the rupiah, aiming to restore investor confidence and limit further capital outflows
  • Easing geopolitical tensions and falling oil prices drove a rebound in high-yield bonds, but gains were pared back as rate expectations rose and spreads widened. Key watchpoints are oil prices and inflation expectations
  • Mainland China’s industrial and consumer data have been resilient, but the property-sector adjustment continues. Investment, sales and financing remain weak, so the market stays cautious about a recovery in fundamentals for China property
  • With the Fed holding rates steady and the US dollar rebounding, some emerging-market currencies have come under pressure. Overall, flows still favor emerging-market bonds with solid fundamentals and higher coupon
Legends

Positive - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform well relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Neutral - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Cautious - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may not perform well or in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

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