Investment Insights

CIO Viewpoints

Bullish on gold, how to position?

Daily Insights

Focus of the Day

  • Yen appreciated past the 100-day moving average against HKD, potentially facing heightened near-term volatility on the upcoming election

Other Commentaries

  • US raised tariffs on South Korea to 25%; Hong Kong advanced its gold hub initiatives; OPEC+ likely to maintain its production freeze next month

Market Analysis

FX Markets Analysis

Latest Technical Highlights

JPY - Sideways➡

Support / Resistance

vs HKD 4.9241 / 5.0850

vs USD 153.00 / 158.00

There are reports that the New York Federal Reserve made an exchange rate inquiry regarding the yen last Friday, highlighting that both US and Japanese authorities are closely monitoring the currency to prevent excessive weakness. Market participants remain alert to potential coordinated intervention, which is providing support for the yen

 

Legends

Uptrend ↗  Sideways →  Downtrend ↘

*Pertaining to historical technical trend analysis only and do not reflect any forecasts or any forward looking views

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

Stock Markets View

  • US equity markets have been volatile, balancing robust GDP and consumption data against heightened US policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Investor focus remains on the Fed’s upcoming policy decision
  • Regional equities may see increased volatility following elevated EU-US tensions related to Greenland. Potential near-term catalysts include a series of European leaders' visits to China, which could bolster economic and trade cooperation and lend support to markets
  • Supported by sound fundamentals, Asian equities are poised for relative strength. The IMF's upward revisions to regional growth forecasts and potential capital inflows amid strained transatlantic relations are key tailwinds
  • While resurfacing geopolitical and US trade policy risks pose headwinds, a softer USD and the continued search for ex-US investment opportunities could benefit resource-rich emerging markets in these regions
  • Hong Kong property stocks are supported by a residential market recovery, a rebound in retail, and improved office demand from a more active capital markets environment. However, the Hang Seng Index lacks a near-term catalyst and is consolidating around its 10-day moving average
Legends

Positive - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform well relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Neutral - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Cautious - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may not perform well or in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

Bond Markets View

  • The University of Michigan one-year inflation expectation stood at 4% in January. With US inflation still above target, market participants expect the Fed to pause further rate cuts at its January meeting
  • US investment-grade corporate bonds rebounded, led by the healthcare and energy sectors, while technology and financials underperformed
  • South Korea’s Q4 GDP contracted quarter-on-quarter, falling short of expectations. Nevertheless, the central bank expects semiconductor sector momentum to continue supporting economic growth ahead
  • US high yield bonds extended their strong performance, with spreads tightening to post‑2007 lows. Attention remains on potential volatility from US policy and global geopolitical risks
  • Real estate investment and sales in China continued to decline in 2025, reflecting persistent demand weakness. While near-term liquidity risks have eased for some major developers, sector fundamentals remain under pressure
  • Brazil’s inflation has returned to the target range, and markets anticipate the central bank will begin cutting rates in March. This should support growth expectations and improve refinancing conditions for emerging market dollar debt
Legends

Positive - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform well relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Neutral - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Cautious - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may not perform well or in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

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