Investment Insights

CIO Viewpoints

How could the upcoming “15th Five-Year Plan” shape Hong Kong equities over the medium to long term?

Daily Insights

Focus of the Day

  • Nikkei 225 has outperformed the Asia-Pacific index YTD, with market watching for potential broadening of performance beyond tech

Other Commentaries

  • Sino-US leaders to meet on Thursday; the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected; US-South Korea concluded a trade deal

Market Analysis

FX Markets Analysis

Latest Technical Highlights

XAU - Uptrend↗

Support / Resistance

vs HKD(Oz) 29,953 / 32,676

vs USD(Oz) 3,850 / 4,200

Gold prices are adjusting as the market anticipates a possible meeting between the US and Chinese presidents this week, easing risk aversion. However, geopolitical risks remain complex and uncertain. Coupled with buying support from central banks, the gold price decline is expected to be a healthy correction rather than a reversal of fundamentals, and will not hinder the medium- to long-term upward trend.

 

Legends

Uptrend ↗  Sideways →  Downtrend ↘

Pertaining to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forecasts.

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

Stock Markets View

  • Expectations for continued Fed rate cuts have supported US equities in reaching new highs. China and the US trade teams have reached a preliminary consensus, with market attention now turning to a potential leaders’ summit
  • Stabilizing French politics and growing expectations for Bank of England rate cuts have improved sentiment. Focus remains on whether European corporate earnings can justify further gains
  • Strong global semiconductor demand, potential US trade agreements with South Korea and India, and Japan’s planned large-scale fiscal stimulus are tailwinds for Asian equities
  • Recent US-Venezuela military tensions and market caution around Argentina’s midterm election results may drive near-term volatility in regional equities and currencies
  • The “15th Five-Year Plan” reaffirmed support for technology and consumption, while progress in Sino-US trade talks has lifted sentiment. Markets are monitoring the potential for a formal agreement
Legends

Positive - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform well relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Neutral - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Cautious - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may not perform well or in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

Bond Markets View

  • US CPI data for September indicates inflation remains broadly contained, strengthening the case for Fed rate cuts. US Treasury yields may consolidate in a narrow range near term
  • Preliminary trade consensus between the Chinese and the US negotiators has improved market sentiment, tightening credit spreads in US investment-grade debt
  • Potential US-India trade agreement supports Asian investment-grade bonds, with spreads showing tightening momentum
  • Spreads remain range-bound amid solid corporate earnings, though potential broad US restrictions on software exports to China pose a sector overhang
  • Asian high-yield bonds perform well, supported by expectations regarding mainland policies and positive developments in US-India trade negotiations, enhancing overall market sentiment 
  • Emerging market debt regains momentum, aided by Mexico's active fiscal deficit control and stabilizing inflation, supporting its local bond markets and broader emerging markets
Legends

Positive - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform well relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Neutral - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Cautious - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may not perform well or in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

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