Investment Insights

CIO Viewpoints

How Fed's downward revision of growth forecasts would impact the stock and bond markets?

Daily Insights

Focus of the Day
  • Global energy sector outperformed global equity market year-to-date

Other Commentaries

  • Mainland loan prime rates stayed flat for 5 months; BoE held rates unchanged, taking a more cautious stance; US existing home sales beat forecasts, easing concern on economic slowdown

Market Analysis

FX Markets Analysis

Latest Technical Highlights

JPY - Uptrend ↗

Support / Resistance

vs HKD 5.1474 / 5.3236

vs USD 146.00 / 151.00

The BOJ maintained rates as expected. The statement noted moderate economic recovery and readiness to raise rates if sustainable inflation targets are met, likely supporting the yen, which is expected to range between 146 and 151.

Legends

Uptrend ↗  Sideways →  Downtrend ↘

Pertaining to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forecasts.

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

Stock Markets View

  • US equities remain volatile, driven by headlines surrounding tariff policies. However, weaker-than-expected February inflation data provided a modest boost to market sentiment. Investors are now focused on the Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting
  • While increased government spending across EU member states is expected to support economic growth, it may also prompt the European Central Bank to end its rate-cutting cycle sooner than anticipated. As a result, European equities are likely to remain in consolidation
  • The weakening US dollar provides more room for Asian economies to introduce stimulus measures. Improved economic prospects in China are expected to support regional growth and offset the impact of US tariffs
  • A weaker dollar has supported rebounds in many Latin American currencies. However, lackluster performance in commodity prices continues to weigh on related emerging equity markets, posing downside risks
  • China's retail sales for the first two months of the year exceeded expectations, and new consumption-boosting measures announced by the State Council have fueled optimism. Improving domestic consumption and economic outlook in China are expected to provide support for Hong Kong equities
Legends

Positive - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform well relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Neutral - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Cautious - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may not perform well or in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

Bond Markets View

  • US consumer confidence in March fell to a two-year low, reflecting ongoing concerns over tariff measures. Markets are focused on this week's Federal Reserve meeting, with sovereign bond performance remaining stable
  • Despite market volatility, investment-grade bonds continued to benefit from higher yields, attracting net inflows over the past week and maintaining relatively stable performance
  • The People’s Bank of China reaffirmed its commitment to cut reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rates  in a timely manner. Combined with improving domestic economic data and a recovering property market, corporate bond issuance is expected to stabilize further
  • US high-yield credit spreads have continued to widen, but yields have returned to year-to-date highs, which may help attract capital inflows
  • Efforts by Chinese property developers to address debt issues, alongside local government initiatives to purchase unsold housing inventory, are expected to stabilize the domestic property market and support broader trends in Chinese property bonds
  • Central banks in Indonesia and other emerging markets are prioritizing economic growth with accommodative monetary policies. However, local fiscal conditions remain an area of concern
Legends

Positive - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform well relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Neutral - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Cautious - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may not perform well or in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

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