Investment Insights

CIO Viewpoints

Orchestrate a more defensive portfolio to weather the potential economic impact by tariffs 

Daily Insights

Focus of the Day
  • CSI 300 Index remains on an uptrend, targeting 4,200

Other Commentaries

  • Reported US gold tariff spiked New York gold futures, clarified later; Trump-Putin to meet Friday; India equities fell for 6 straight weeks

Market Analysis

FX Markets Analysis

Latest Technical Highlights

AUD - Uptrend↗

Support / Resistance

vs HKD 5.0240 / 5.2595

vs USD 0.64 / 0.67

The RBA will hold its interest rate meeting on Tuesday. Given that inflation is under control, the market expects the RBA to cut rates by 25 basis points. However, hopes of an extended US-China trade truce are expected to benefit the currency. AUD/USD resistance at 76.4% Fibonacci about 67 US cents.

 

Legends

Uptrend ↗  Sideways →  Downtrend ↘

Pertaining to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forecasts.

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

Stock Markets View

  • While mega-cap tech earnings largely met or exceeded expectations, weaker-than-expected jobs data and new US tariffs on multiple countries have raised economic concerns, potentially increasing correction pressure on US equities
  • Performance across European markets has been mixed. Fiscal stimulus measures in the region may support local economies, but export-oriented sectors face headwinds due to trade policy uncertainty
  • Despite a pullback in Asian equities driven by concerns over US tariffs and a rebound in the US dollar, the market remains optimistic about strong fundamentals, which are expected to support medium- to long-term performance
  • While Latin American equities and currencies have performed well year-to-date, uncertainties around US tariff policies and dollar strength may heighten volatility in these markets
  • The Central Politburo meeting met expectations but provided no significant market catalyst. Progress in Sino-US trade negotiations appears priced into Hong Kong equities, leaving the Hang Seng Index vulnerable to near-term consolidation
Legends

Positive - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform well relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Neutral - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Cautious - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may not perform well or in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

Bond Markets View

  • US non-farm payroll growth in July fell short of expectations, fueling market anticipation of rate cuts by the Fed. However, economic and rate uncertainty may increase volatility in US Treasuries
  • US investment-grade credit spreads widened by 5 basis points week-on-week to 80 basis points, as risk-off sentiment drove inflows into Treasuries
  • Select BBB-rated Asian technology firms outperformed following robust quarterly earnings. Investors are closely watching for further corporate earnings announcements in August
  • The US high-yield bond market posted gains for three consecutive months, but weaker employment data may weigh on risk appetite, potentially pressuring high-yield bonds in the near term
  • Asian high-yield bonds continued to perform well. While the recovery in China’s property sector remains uneven, expectations of further policy support could stabilize the housing market
  • A stalled US dollar rebound and falling Treasury yields supported emerging market debt, with higher yields continuing to attract yield-seeking capital
Legends

Positive - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform well relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Neutral - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may perform in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run
Cautious - Expect that the particular asset class potentially may not perform well or in line relative to the relevant major global benchmark(s) in the long run

Provided by Hang Seng Investment Services Limited

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